Calgary's 2023 Housing Needs Assessment: We're not in good shape
And it's probably worse than we know...
Howdy Neighbour!
Well, this is the week! This coming Thursday, September 14, the Community Development Committee of Council will meet to discuss Home is Here: The City of Calgary’s Housing Strategy. You can take a look at the agenda here, and even look through the public submissions so far.
In this housing strategy are a series of recommendations to make housing affordable. As we’ve mentioned before, this is a multi-pronged approach that will help insure supply for more homes, stability for the housing market, and subsidy for those who cannot afford housing.
Over 100 people have signed up to speak, and it’s not too late for you to make yourself heard:
Come join the rally at noon on Thursday! We' will head to the council chambers afterward to show our support. If you’d like to stay and speak you can still sign up the day of!
Write your councillor directly (ward<n>@calgary.ca) and let them know this issue is important to you.
The City just released their 2023 Housing Needs Assessment. It’s not a happy story.
Here’s what it says:
1 in 5 households in Calgary cannot afford their housing costs
84,600 households earn less than $63,700 per year (65% of Calgary’s median income) and spend more than 30% of their income on housing
Renters are facing staggering increases
In the past two years (2020-2023), average rent has increased by 40% ($1501 to $2097), the average price of a single-detached house has increased by 37% ($470,000 to $645,000), and the number of homes available for rent decreased from 6% to 3%.
Buyers are required to earn more and more
In order to not spend more than the recommended 30% of your income on the median market rent, you’d have to make $84,000. That’s up $17,000 from a year ago. First-time buyers looking to buy an apartment would need a minimum income of $70,800, and first-time buyers looking to buy a single-detached house would need a minimum income of $156,000.
Affordable housing is way over capacity
Between 2018 and 2023, Calgary Housing Company’s wait list grew by about 18%, and as of August this year, there are over 5300 households on Calgary Housing Company’s wait list.
Based on our forecasted population growth and the historical rate of housing need, the number of households in need of affordable housing options is forecasted to reach close to 100,000 by 2026. This means Calgary requires four times more affordable housing supply than what is currently being built.
Affordable housing affects marginalized people
Most (81%) of Calgarians in housing need are in single or two-person households, and 70% are of working age. 56% experience long-term challenges or difficulties. 10% are recent immigrants and non-permanent residents.
4.5% of households in housing need are Indegenous, while only 3% of Calgary’s population is Indegenous.
Between 2022 and 2018, the number of Calgarians experiencing homelessness decreased by 4% (based on the Calgary Homeless Foundation’s 2022 point-in-time count) - that’s promising! However, more Indigenous people and women are experiencing homelessnes: 30% of people experiencing homelessness are Indigenous, (up from 20% in 2018), and 32% of people experiencing homelessness are women, (up from 25% in 2018).
This all sounds pretty bad, right? Well, it’s actually worse.
The housing need is higher than we know. The assessment acknowledges that “it is likely that housing need is higher,” and we won’t have a full picture of our current housing need (in 2023) until we receive data from the 2026 Federal Census.
This is in part because the assessment was conducted using the 2021 Federal Census; data for which was collected in 2020. The COVID-19 Pandemic disrupted the way we lived our lives in many ways.
During 2020, things like government-supported income and employment programs, low interest rates, lower home prices and rents, created housing conditions that made it so more households were able to afford their shelter costs. These supports are no longer available.
What’s more, this assessment does not consider suppressed household formation.
Mike Moffatt observes, “the number of net new households formed is a function of the number of net new homes.”
In other words, “A lack of homes causes (forces) younger people to live with their parents or several roommates, suppressing household formation.”
Last year, Jens von Bergmann and Nathan Lauster estimated that Calgary needs another 40,000-50,000 homes so people can live on their own, start families, or respond to changes in their lives. To build that many houses, they estimate that it would take 3-5 years of building twice as many homes as were built in Calgary around 2016.
The Housing Needs Assessment does not attempt to estimate how many homes are needed to respond to suppressed household formation.
We need to act now
Even with its limitations, this report supports urgent actions like increasing supply across the housing spectrum, greater housing stability, and subsidies so everyone has a decent place to live.
Housing is complex. This Housing Strategy should do more than past ones have.
Join us September 14 and beyond as we push Council to tackle the housing crisis with compassion and effective policy.